How Distribution Will Change Post-COVID
A major question that COVID has brought up in the entertainment world is how traditional distribution methods are going to change. We were already living in the age of streaming and the pandemic only expedited the transition. Many are uncertain of what the future holds for the industry. Will movie theatres die out? What’s going to happen to smaller independent movies? Are studios still going to dump hundreds of millions of dollars into major blockbusters? I already addressed my thoughts on the fate of movie theatres in a separate article but I think it’s important to address all these questions and talk about the major changes the entire entertainment will face in the coming months and years.
I think the studios and theatres are definitely safe for the foreseeable future. Hollywood and all its projects are so backlogged right now, that it’s going to be a pretty overwhelming task to try to fit it all in to your busy schedule. The industry is still going to continue churning out product and in the meantime, they have so much content on reserve, that cinephiles are going to be like kids in a candy store for the next couple years. We’re going to get an onslaught of big, highly anticipated releases almost every weekend. Combine that with the hunger people have to go out and start doing things again and you have a winning formula. The initial return to movies is going to be big and it’s going to last for a while. Signs of this are happening already. Look at Godzilla vs. Kong, which had a $123 million debut overseas. It’s a precursor for what’s to come.
Studios and theatres, however, must realize that this trend has a finite life expectancy. Eventually, the number of big releases is going to slow down and a night at the movies is going to become commonplace once again. So what’s going to happen when studios and theatres hit this wall and what are they already doing to prepare? One way which has made headlines is the collapse of the traditional 90 day theatrical window. Universal already made a deal with AMC to put their films to VOD as soon as 17 days after their release. Paramount announced a similar plan, deciding to stream some of their tentpole movies 45 days after their debut. Is this the sign that blockbuster filmmaking is dead? I don’t think so but it does mean that we may not regularly see the mega box office numbers that a hit like Avengers: Infinity War was able to garner. After going to the movies becomes a regular thing again, enough people are going to opt to wait and see a film from the comfort of the their couch. This will certainly affect box office results. This also means that studios are going to be more conservative with regards to the investments they make. A director getting hundreds of millions of dollars to make his or her dream project is going to become even tougher. That’s one way streamers will factor in. They have more money to gamble because they have more capital to spend. They’re going to attract more creators to work with them. Auteurs like David Fincher are signing 4-year deals with Netflix and players like Apple TV Plus are handing legends like Scorsese $200 million to make their films. Perhaps streamers are going to be the new home for more daring and original projects.
The other big uncertainty is what’s going to happen to the smaller, more independent movies. They were already dying to grab more audience attention before the pandemic and now they could be in an even worse situation. That’s assuming they continue with the traditional theatrical strategy. That’s not what I think they are going to do though. Most of these smaller films are going to go straight to VOD home release and simultaneously play in a few smaller cinemas. I think that this could lead to a major benefit for these types of movies. The problem before COVID was that these projects couldn’t get enough eyeballs on them. They may have gotten awards nominations but most of the general public didn’t see them. People saw a preview on TV after the movie started playing in theatres and thought about renting it when it went to VOD. Months later, they completely forgot about it. Now, audiences are going to see that commercial and be able to watch it that same day from the comfort of their homes. As a result, independent film may become more popular with general audiences as it becomes more accessible as a result of the pandemic.
COVID only sped up these changes in an industry which stayed stagnant for quite some time. Some of these predictions are already starting to happen and some may never come to be. What’s for certain, is film and entertainment is going to go through a very transformative period in the years to come. The norm is going to change and as a fan of the industry, I can’t wait to see what this period of uncertainty brings in the long-term.
